During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, many Texas Impact members wondered if it would be safe to vote in-person, and if voting by mail might be a viable alternative. Before we were able to provide our members with a recommendation regarding voting by mail, Texas Impact staff undertook to learn about rejection rates for ballots cast by mail in Texas.
In the summer of 2020, using the provisions of the Public Information Act, we contacted each of Texas’ 30 most populous counties, which collectively are home to 80 percent of the state’s population. Through our communications with local officials in each county, we obtained ballot rejection data from each election starting with the 2016 primary elections going through the 2020 primary elections (this is as far back as counties are required to keep voting records).
The county officials were easy to work with and forthcoming with their data and explanations. One of the most important things we learned from the counties was that the vast majority of rejected ballots were rejected because they arrived after the deadline, and were simply too late to be counted. Thus, ballot rejections were the result of user/voter error, and not because of improper or suspicious activity.
For example, when we look at voting by mail rejection rates from the 2016 primary elections through the 2020 primary elections in Harris County (Texas’ most populous county), the highest percentage of ballots by mail rejected was 2.58 percent in the 2018 primary election. The lowest percentage of ballots by mail rejected was 1.11 percent in the 2020 primary election. That means at least 97.42 percent of all ballots by mail cast in Harris County during this time period were counted. The data we obtained from the other counties is substantially similar to Harris County. In fact, the average rejection rate across all elections and counties through these years was 1.62 percent.
The data we received and analyzed from the 30 counties gave us a high level of confidence that voting by mail was a viable option for Texans. We concluded that properly completed and timely returned mail-in ballots in Texas would be counted in the 2020 general election. To help our members and other Texans make use of this reliable and helpful option, we prepared several resources:
- Voting by Mail in Texas 2020: The Definitive Guide (For current laws and rules of voting by mail in Texas);
- Voting by Mail in Texas: The Most Powerful Instrument (For historical context for voting by mail in Texas and analysis of the lack of evidence of voter fraud in states that hold their elections primarily by mail); and
- YouTube video (Regarding strategies for voting by mail in Texas, and a reminder that mail-in ballots that meet eligibility and validity requirements are counted in every election in Texas).
Table One: Mail Ballot Rejection Rates for Texas’ Most Populous Counties
2016 to 2020
| County | Pop | 2016 P Rej. Rate | 2016 P RO Rej. Rate | 2016 Gen. Rej. Rate |
2018 P Rej. Rate |
2018 Gen. Rej. Rate | 2020 P Rej. Rate | 2020 P RO Rej. Rate | Total Ballots (last 3 cycles) | Total Rej. (last 3 cycles) | Avg. Rej. Rate (2016- 2020) |
| Harris**** | 4,713,325 | 2.11% | 2.29% | 1.70% | 2.58% | 1.49% | 1.11% | 2.50% | 460,958 | 8741 | 1.90% |
| Dallas*** | 2,635,516 | no data | no data | no data | 0.43% | 0.69% | 0.25% | 0.21% | 93481 | 445 | 0.48% |
| Tarrant | 2,102,515 | 0.37% | 0.52% | 0.66% | 0.47% | 0.84% | 1.22% | 0.24% | 153283 | 998 | 0.65% |
| Bexar | 2,003,554 | 4.08% | 2.43% | 1.30% | 2.59% | 1.42% | 1.87% | 1.35% | 166202 | 2995 | 1.80% |
| Travis | 1,273,954 | 2.75% | 2.49% | 0.93% | 1.70% | 0.46% | 0.67% | 0.17% | 105588 | 928 | 0.88% |
| Collin*** | 1,034,730 | no data | no data | no data | no data | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.09% | 28605 | 26 | 0.09% |
| Denton | 887,207 | 2.98% | 1.31% | 1.85% | 0.33% | 0.59% | 0.24% | 0.23% | 55863 | 538 | 0.96% |
| Hildalgo | 868,707 | 2.46% | 0.77% | 2.35% | 1.52% | 1.46% | 1.39% | 1.91% | 29456 | 522 | 1.77% |
| El Paso | 839,238 | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.79% | 0.29% | 0.90% | 0.47% | 0.28% | 43070 | 252 | 0.59% |
| Fort Bend | 811,688 | 2.89% | 2.95% | 3.40% | 2.72% | 3.63% | 4.76% | 2.76% | 61051 | 2053 | 3.36% |
| Montgomery | 607,391 | 0.63% | 0.26% | 0.46% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.37% | 0.11% | 57747 | 237 | 0.41% |
| Williamson | 590,551 | 1.33% | 0.79% | 1.64% | 2.80% | 3.69% | 0.99% | 0.31% | 49277 | 968 | 1.96% |
| Cameron* | 423,163 | 2.60% | 0.19% | 2.19% | 2.63% | 1.76% | 2.74% | 1.36% | 14883 | 294 | 1.98% |
| Brazoria | 374,264 | no data | 0.79% | 1.10% | 0.55% | no data | 0.69% | 0.89% | 19429 | 157 | 0.81% |
| Bell* | 362,924 | 4.43% | 3.25% | 1.59% | 3.43% | 2.79% | 2.68% | 4.25% | 21935 | 622 | 2.84% |
| Nueces | 362,294 | ||||||||||
| Galveston | 342,139 | 1.30% | 2.29% | 1.23% | 1.21% | 1.09% | 1.81% | 2.84% | 30840 | 495 | 1.61% |
| Lubbock* | 310,569 | 0.71% | 0.88% | 0.45% | 0.67% | 0.57% | 0.94% | 0.35% | 28181 | 172 | 0.61% |
| Webb | 276,652 | no data | no data | no data | 12.03% | 7.59% | 5.51% | 10.92% | 5148 | 466 | 9.05% |
| McLennan | 256,623 | 0.86% | 0.61% | 0.63% | 0.38% | 0.81% | 0.50% | 0.43% | 26405 | 162 | 0.61% |
| Jefferson | 251,565 | 1.94% | 1.04% | 0.42% | 1.10% | 1.13% | 1.96% | 1.33% | 21116 | 238 | 1.13% |
| Smith^ | 232,751 | 3.77% | 2.72% | no data | 18.24% | no data | 5.40% | 4.41% | 13886 | 1010 | 7.27% |
| Hays | 230,191 | no data | no data | no data | 1.01% | 1.24% | 0.67% | 0.68% | 17250 | 161 | 0.93% |
| Brazos | 229,211 | no data | no data | no data | 0.66% | 1.25% | 0.49% | 0.47% | 7671 | 63 | 0.82% |
| Ellis*** | 184,826 | no data | no data | no data | 4.67% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.32% | 7873 | 77 | 0.98% |
| Midland^^ | 176,832 | 23.43% | 58.08% | 15.70% | 20.80% | 14.16% | 15.51% | 24.18% | 10422 | 2181 | 20.93% |
| Johnson | 175,817 | no data | no data | no data | 4.12% | 2.05% | 1.70% | 2.66% | 5786 | 140 | 2.42% |
| Guadalupe | 166,847 | 0.58% | 0.46% | 1.89% | 1.42% | 1.98% | 1.27% | 0.94% | 11819 | 175 | 1.48% |
| Ector | 166,223 | no data | no data | 1.76% | no data | 3.00% | 1.08% | 0.00% | 4735 | 89 | 1.88% |
| Comal** | 156,209 | 1.47% | n/a** | 2.13% | 2.03% | 2.01% | 1.83% | 1.16% | 22648 | 377 | 1.66% |
| Totals | 23,047,476 | 1,574,608 | 25582 | 1.62% | |||||||
| Texas SOS | |||||||||||
| State Total | 29,000,000 | ||||||||||
| % of State | 0.7947405 |
* Lubbock, Midland, Collin, Cameron, Bell, Jefferson, and Ellis provided aggregated data for a joint primary. Lubbock also informs us that the majority of rejected ballots are because they arrived late.
** Comal county lacked data for the 2016 Primary Runoff for both parties.
***Dallas, Collin, Ellis and Hays County do not keep records longer than 22 months and have no data for 2016.
****Harris could break it out by late vs rejected. Overwhelming majority are due to being late.
^Smith county sent most of the elections requested, but attempts to clarify what was missing, failed to get the data.
^^Midland is unusually high. Request for clarification went unclarified. May be counting all ballots sent out.