On May 24, 2022, Texas held its party primary runoffs. The message from those primary runoffs is that little has changed and we’re in for more of the same: despite the fact that there are nearly 4 million more Texans of voting age than there were in 2012, the 600,000 Texans who have controlled Texas for more than a decade, still control Texas.
Let’s break down how these 600,000 voters control Texas through the nonparticipation of the rest of the voting age population:
1. Since at least 2012, 600,000 is the “win number” for a statewide candidate in a Republican primary runoff.
No Democrat has won a statewide election since 1994. Like Texas after the end of Reconstruction, Texas is a one party state. Therefore, the party primary is the race that statewide candidates—and 95 percent of the state legislature—are most concerned. Thus, it is to these 600,000 voters about whom a candidate or an office holder is worried.
2. In a Republican primary, it is an exceedingly rare occasion when more than 10 percent of the voting age population of Texas participates. It has happened just once in the last decade. In 2016, 2.8 million–or 15 percent of the VAP—participated in the competitive primary for President of the United States. Normally, it is less than 2 million.
3. In a Republican primary runoff, turnout drops. Turnout in a runoff has not exceeded 6 percent of the voting age population in the last decade.
For example, in 2012, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz won his runoff with 632,000 of the 1.1 million votes cast. In 2014, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick won his runoff with 490,000 of the 753,000 votes cast. In 2022, Attorney General Ken Paxton won his runoff with 630,000 of the 927,000 votes cast.
4. Texas had 18 million people of voting age in 2012, 19 million people of voting age in 2014, and nearly 22 million people of voting age in 2022.
If 22 million Texans want their state government to do something different, then they have two opportunities to signal their displeasure—the primary and general elections. However, in 2022, if the 20 million Texans—the number that did not participate in the Democratic primary or the Republican primary runoff—want something different, then November is their last opportunity before the 88th Legislature convenes.