When the 88th Texas Legislature convenes in 2023, they likely will face major legislation on the issues of public education, LGBTQ rights, and immigration…and how they handle that legislation more than likely will be determined by the outcomes of the May 24 primary runoffs. Even though the November general election has much higher turnout, the finale of the most important race—the party primaries—will take place in those runoffs. Ninety-five percent of the seats in the state legislature effectively will be decided in the party primaries due to partisan gerrymandering.
Historically, turnout in a primary runoff is about half the total turnout of the March primary. In the last decade, primary turnout—including both major parties—has ranged between 10-13 percent of the voting age population. In a Republican primary runoff, six percent of the state’s voting age population participating would be the high end of the range.
That means that three percent of the state’s voting age population is disproportionately driving policy outcomes impacting nearly 30 million Texans. For example, in the 2012 and 2014 primary runoffs, three percent and 2.5 percent of Texas’ voting age population elected U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, respectively.
“Down-ballot” races — such as a race for 1 of the 150 seats in the Texas House — often have an outsized influence on policy outcomes in the next legislative session. For instance, in the 2005 legislative session, the Chair of the House Public Education Committee was a prominent supporter of privatizing the public school system through school vouchers. His defeat in the 2006 party primary by a public school teacher had ripple effects throughout the legislature, and was widely interpreted as a repudiation of school vouchers by the electorate…an interpretation that lasted for more than a decade.
Those Texas voters who showed up to vote for Diane Patrick in that one House district— 5,973 of the 10,281 voters in that Republican primary election—sent a message not just to Patrick and Grusendorf, , but to every Republican in the Texas House about how a majority of their voters felt about the issues raised in that campaign. Better than any statistical sample of less than 1,000 “likely voters” in a poll produced by a consulting firm, electoral returns are real results from thousands of actual voters. Elected officials, staff, and the lobby take notice accordingly.
In the 2022 primary runoffs, at least three issues are recurring in a number of down-ballot races for the Texas House. As was the case in 2006, public education is “on the ballot”. The success or failure of pro-public education candidates against candidates that favor privatization in at least four races will reverberate throughout the Texas House.
Similarly, LGBTQ rights are “on the ballot” in the May runoffs. Despite a supermajority of Texans and persons of faith favoring nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ persons, May runoff voters in at least three House districts will be choosing between candidates who are campaigning enthusiastically on platforms supporting active targeting of LGBTQ Texans with discriminatory legislation, and candidates who have been less vociferously enthusiastic about such discriminatory legislation.
Finally, immigration is “on the ballot” in May. Over the spring, Former Trump Administration officials have been pressuring border governors to “declare an invasion” at the southern border. While constitutionally dubious, it is argued that such a declaration would allow states to claim—at a minimum—that they have the legal authority to return migrants to Mexico. The Arizona Attorney General has already responded by writing an opinion to that effect. A Texas House committee chair has requested a similar opinion from the Texas Attorney General. Groups that back more extreme candidates have injected it into the primary runoffs by sending out a questionnaire and publishing candidates’ responses.
Each House District represents roughly 190,000 Texans. If history repeats, then somewhere between 4,000 and 14,000 voters will participate in a runoff for a state house seat. That means as few as 2,001 voters could send a message on May 24 that affects the policy direction the 88th Texas Legislature will take on public education, LGBTQ rights, and immigration.