In a twist pulled from the plot of a dystopian movie, news broke that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OPEC, had distributed a letter instructing its member states to vote against any attempt to limit the production and use of fossil fuels at this year’s climate negotiations. Because COP decisions require consensus among all parties, rather than a majority or even a supermajority, disagreement by even a single party could derail the negotiations. This is a blow to those many negotiators who have engaged in the process with integrity, especially those arguing for the safety of their population, for whom the impacts of climate change are real and devastating.
The biggest obstacle to political progress on addressing climate change has always been those whose financial interests are tied to the production of fossil fuels. Like the big tobacco companies before them, oil producers have recognized that their product presents a danger, and rather than working toward a solution, they have responded by questioning the science and offering misleading information to confuse the public and limit support for any limits placed on their product.
Haitham Al-Ghais, secretary general of OPEC wrote in the letter that “It seems that the undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences.” It is unclear if Al-Ghais is aware of the irony of his framing. It is not just pressure on fossil fuel producers which may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences, but the entire earth system. Climate change tipping points already identified by scientists include things like the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which could lead to as much as five meters of sea level rise, the destabilization of the thermohaline circulation ocean current, which would cause devastating changes to the climate in North America, and the melting of permafrost, which would release devastating amounts of greenhouse gas methane into the atmosphere. These tipping points threaten the very habitability of the planet.
The consequences of OPEC’s position were apparent at a late evening plenary Saturday hosted by COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber, in which he updated the audience on the progress of the ongoing negotiations around the First Global Stocktake. Negotiations are ongoing in multiple different areas of focus under the Stocktake, including Adaptation, Mitigation, Finance, and others. While some of these areas are reaching consensus, one of the areas which the COP President said is NOT nearing a consensus is the group working on the problem of Mitigation.
Mitigation refers to activities which reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. There are multiple ways to achieve mitigation, but the most important is to stop burning fossil fuels, which is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. In COP language, the movement to end the use of fossil fuels is called the phaseout of fossil fuels. Some are alternatively calling for a phaseDOWN, or a reduction in the use of fossil fuels, possibly on the way to a future complete phaseOUT.
The potential phaseout or phasedown of fossil fuels directly threatens the financial interests of OPEC nations. The fact that the group is threatened enough by the activities at COP to issue this letter is a reflection of the potential the negotiations hold for a safer climate future, including the fossil fuel phaseout. But as long as a small group of nations with a conflict of interest is able to halt the negotiations, that safer climate future will remain impossible.
This news is the most recent in a series of leaked news which have made climate advocates skeptical about the possibilities for this year’s COP. Just before COP officially started, news broke about leaked documents indicating the host country of the COP, the UAE (an OPEC member), planned to use the gathering as an opportunity to negotiate fossil fuel deals. There have also been concerns about a potential conflict of interest given the president of the COP’s position as director of national oil and gas company Adnoc.
In response to the criticism, Sultan Al-Jaber said that he favors a new approach to climate negotiations, one which brings all constituencies together, including oil and gas producers. He said that we will never make progress if climate advocates continue to vilify the oil and gas producers. It is an interesting idea, after all oil and gas producers have significant influence through both financial and political means on much of the world’s decision-making infrastructure. Perhaps there is a way to get them to come alongside climate advocates and use that influence for good?
This week’s leak of the OPEC letter shows the potential hazard of that approach. Now that everyone is at the table, Al-Jaber must use his influence in the region to call on the MENA nations to do the right thing and initiate a phaseout of fossil fuels despite the pressure from OPEC. OPEC’s secretary general’s stance that the phaseout of fossil fuels is an attempt to tank the economies of oil-producing nations is an antiquated idea. Not only has the conversation progressed to the idea of a just transition – supporting economies dependent on fossil fuels so that workers and local economies are not harmed – the simple fact of the matter is that unless we stop emitting carbon, and soon, the climate on earth will become unsafe. And in the OPEC states, that means uninhabitable temperatures for much of the year.
The pressure OPEC has put on the negotiators representing its states is discouraging news, especially as scientists and climate advocates point out that the best way to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is to keep it in the ground. There is currently no technology which effectively removes carbon from the atmosphere or prevents carbon from being emitted when fossil fuels are burned at the scale required to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Every single new oil and gas development project takes us further from the goal of a safe future climate.
As Sultan Al-Jaber has said multiple times in his official remarks at COP, now is the time for bold and effective action and an unwavering commitment to holding global warming to less than 1.5°C. That path requires those interested in the future of humanity to act with courage and conviction to resist the influence of fossil fuel producers.