Correlation v. Causation: Texas Border Policies

The Data: Border Patrol Land Encounters in Texas Decrease

As of January 2024, U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows that Border Patrol (BP) land encounters with migrants throughout the entire southern land border decreased, and specifically the Texas-Mexico border sectors decreased significantly compared to the previous year. However, CBP land encounters in Tucson, Arizona and San Diego, California have steadily increased since July 2023. On the other hand, data for the Office of Field Operations (OFO) shows encounters at ports of entry have increased. OFO is responsible for CBP One appointment processing.

Governor Abbott has taken the liberty to freely state that the decrease in migrant encounters in Texas is due to his multi billion dollar border enforcement mechanism, Operation Lone Star. “We are having a profound impact in stopping the flow of illegal immigration into the state of Texas,” Abbott said in the interview, crediting Operation Lone Star.”

In contrast, other experts have stated that there are a number of reasons that may account for the decrease in border encounters in Texas. Retired Tucson Sector Chief stated, “We’ve always treated the border as a simple line on a map, but it’s more than that — it’s an ecosystem.” Part of this “ecosystem” can include the fact that Mexico ramped up its own apprehension of migrants in January 2024. Additionally, migrants can now access the CBP One application from central Mexico which means they don’t have to wait in precarious conditions in camps along the border and can better withstand the long months of waiting for a CBP One appointment.

The Policies: S.B. 4 Clones in the United States

Another reason for the decrease in Texas border encounters may be the S.B. 4 law that is pending litigation. It might have forced migrants to stay put while they wait to see how this law will unravel and affect them. Indeed, the passage of S.B. 4 has already reverberated across the United States. There are currently approximately ten states that have proposed similar S.B. 4 legislation or very anti-immigrant bills. These states include Missouri, South Carolina, West Virginia, Idaho, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Florida, and Georgia.

While Iowa and Tennessee have advanced even further and already signed similar laws in their respective state. The Iowa bill is a strikingly copycat bill of S.B. 4. Iowa Governor Reynolds, stated the reason for signing such a bill is because: “The Biden Administration has failed to enforce our nation’s immigration laws, putting the protection and safety of Iowans at risk. Those who come into our country illegally have broken the law, yet Biden refuses to deport them. This bill gives Iowa law enforcement the power to do what he is unwilling to do: enforce immigration laws already on the books.”

Deportation Machine: Federal and State

An important statistic that is rarely mentioned is the high number of deportations the federal government has carried out –in essence effectively– implementing its deterrence based approach to immigration. This data directly contradicts the “federal government is not doing its job” reasoning as to why several US states are so willing to create S.B. 4 clone laws of their own.

“From May 12, 2023 to April 3, 2024, DHS has removed or returned over 660,000 individuals, the vast majority of whom crossed the southwest border, including more than 102,000 individual family members. The majority of all individuals encountered at the southwest border over the past three years have been removed, returned, or expelled.”

The federal government continues to structure immigration policy and enforcement from a deterrence based approach. Texas has created and implemented its own extreme enforcement of immigration laws and essentially works side by side with our federal government to continue feeding the deportation machine. Both the federal government and Texas have implemented physical and legal barriers that make it more difficult for people seeking safety and refuge to access the human right to claim asylum. Imagine the complete chaos and police state country we could potentially become if all 50 states legislate their own separate immigration enforcement laws and entities.

The below table is a side-by-side visual of the currently enforced deterrence based immigration policies of the federal government and Texas that together perpetuate the deportation machine.