COP29 started in Baku, Azerbaijan on Monday, November 11, 2024. The conference began with a plenary session during which the COP28 president, Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, offered some reflections on COP28 (last year, in Dubai, UAE). Dr. Al Jaber then passed the gavel to the COP29 president, H.E. Mukhtar Babayev, from Azerbaijan.
Dr. Al Jaber reflected on the historic decisions made at COP28, including funding the Loss and Damage fund as well as naming a transition away from fossil fuels in the official documents. President Babayev reminded us of the significance of the work which remains to be done. He noted that in a business-as-usual scenario, we are on track for a catastrophic 3C of warming. He stressed the important role of climate finance in mitigating climate-harming emissions and called for a just and orderly transition away from fossil fuels.
The climate finance conversation at this year’s COP centers on the “New Collective Quantified Goal,” (NCQG) a new, more ambitious goal for financial support made available to developing countries by developed countries. The original goal was set at the time of the Paris Agreement at $100B (US) per year. New analysis indicates the need is as much as $2 T (US)/year. Climate advocates hope to increase the climate finance goal to reflect the actual need.
Fossil fuel emission mitigation and the energy transition will be discussed as “Nationally Determined Contributions” or NDCs. NDCs are the commitment each party (country) makes to mitigate their fossil fuel emissions. New NDCs are due in 2025 and climate advocates hope countries make ambitious commitments to climate mitigation.
UNFCCC Chair Simon Stiell took the stage next and emphasized that climate finance is in the best interest of every country. That’s because mitigation actions taken in one country improve the likelihood of impacts all over the world, when it comes to climate. Climate finance is one way to help developing countries set robust and ambitious NDCs.
After these comments the plenary session went on a break and was expected to resume in thirty minutes. Delays caused by disagreement over the agenda meant that the conference didn’t resume until after 8:00 PM.
It was a strange way to start a conference that already feels strained as we hold our breath, waiting to see whether the incoming Trump Administration will follow through on the promise to once again pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement. There is much speculation that the coming administration will have a devastating impact on the climate.
From what I have heard from several sources at COP today, there is reason to hold out hope that the work will continue, even if the United States fails to join in. Renewable energy is now being driven by market forces. Many countries are deeply committed to climate action. And, in the United States, many city, county, and state governments have taken on climate action and are already making significant commitments to reducing their emissions. There are innovative ways to aggregate these sub-national efforts and translate them into the national contribution language familiar to those in the COP space. I look forward to learning more about these approaches to mitigation during the conference.