Hurricane Predictions for Texas

Still many months away, a few private weather forecasters have started thinking ahead to the warmer months. As Paul Yeager reports, "WSI, a private forecasting company, and the Tropical Meteorology Project of Colorado State University (CSU) have both issued early season projections of more storms than last year -- and more storms than an average tropical season."

As for the actual projections, "WSI is forecasting 13 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), including seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. A major hurricane is considered one of category 3 or higher, which is a storm with a sustained wind of at least 131 mph. CSU is forecasting 11 to 16 named storms, including six to eight hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. The 50-year average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes per year."

Skeptics have been quick to point out how inaccurate forecasts can be for the next day, questioning how accurate can a forecast be in the next six months. Experts point out that short-term forecasts and long-term forecasts are made using completely different data sets. While short-term forecasts are all in the details, "long-range forecasts are not influenced by these small-scale factors. They're based on general, long-term weather factors, such as temperatures of the Pacific Ocean, temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean, and general position of large upper-level high- and low-pressure systems."

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