Copenhagen Update: One More Day to Act

Only one day remains at COP15 in Copenhagen, and beyond forest protection, any agreement is highly uncertain. On Thursday, Secretary Clinton announced the U.S. would be willing to contribute to a $100 billion annual fund for climate change adaptation, but without progress on many unresolved fronts, the progress that has been made on carbon commitment reductions and the adaptation fund will be put on hold awaiting a future climate agreement. The U.S. has revealed what it has on the table little by little without changing what that was. China appears very unlikely to agree to anything more than a vague statement of principles, the EU has not announced on a common position to many issues, and the G77 countries are largely internally divided.

Adaptation Fund Update: Secretary Clinton announced Thursday that the U.S. would participate in a $100 billion a year fund for climate change adaptation and amelioration in developing countries; however, the commitment was conditional on there being a firm agreement at Copenhagen, which seems very unlikely at this point. The EU has yet to announce a common commitment to a mid-term fund, although they have pledged $10.5 billion over the next three years. Secretary Clinton did not say how much the U.S. would be willing to commit; it is assumed that there would be both public and private contributions to the fund. It also remains to be determined how the fund would be managed or who would decide how to distribute the funds.

Carbon Emissions and Transparency: Little progress has been made in this area, even though developed countries all came into the conference with public commitments on emissions cuts. Disagreement about the size of the cuts from developed countries, and curbing emissions in developing nations, has derailed further negotiation. The issue of transparency and carbon emissions verification is a major sticking point: the U.S. continues to insist on transparency and independent verification in reported carbon emissions. China and India have refused any form of monitoring.

Has Too Much Attention Been A Bad Thing? Perhaps the greatest frustration about the conference is the unwillingness of sides to compromise, or even focus on making progress in the negotiations. The negotiations have received a considerable amount of media attention; however, as opposed to mobilizing the delegations to hammer out agreements many countries or blocs dedicated the first week and a half of the conference to broadcasting their grievances and staking uncompromising positions. All this posturing impeded progress, even in the issue working groups. As a result, there was little actual progress prior to the closing days of the conference as heads of state arrived.

While many countries shifted their conference goals from a legal to a political agreement in the months prior to the conference, it is increasingly clear that even that is in question, and the list of issues being pushed off until next year appears to grow by the day. Friday – the final day of COP15 – will define not only what is accomplished in Copenhagen, but also what remains to be accomplished for a legal agreement to be a possibility next year.